{"id":146,"date":"2019-02-02T01:11:22","date_gmt":"2019-02-02T01:11:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/populareducation.in\/loksamvad\/?post_type=article&#038;p=146"},"modified":"2019-02-02T01:11:22","modified_gmt":"2019-02-02T01:11:22","slug":"state-of-the-climate-how-the-world-warmed-in-2018","status":"publish","type":"article","link":"http:\/\/populareducation.in\/loksamvad\/article\/state-of-the-climate-how-the-world-warmed-in-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"State of the climate: How the world warmed in 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"The climate data for 2018 is now mostly in, though the ongoing shutdown of the US government has caused some datasets to be delayed.\r\n\r\nIn this article, Carbon Brief explains why last year proved to be so remarkable across the oceans, atmosphere, cryosphere and surface temperature of the planet.\r\n\r\nA number of records for the Earth\u2019s climate were set in 2018:\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li>It was the warmest year on record for ocean heat content, which increased markedly between 2017 and 2018.<\/li>\r\n \t<li>It was the fourth warmest year on record for surface temperature.<\/li>\r\n \t<li>It was the sixth warmest year in the lower troposphere \u2013 the lower part of the atmosphere.<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Greenhouse gas concentrations reached record levels for CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide.<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Sea ice was well below the long-term average at both poles for most of the year. The summer Arctic sea ice minimum was the sixth lowest since records began in the late 1970s.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<strong>Warmest year on record in the oceans<\/strong>\r\n\r\nLast year was the warmest on record for the heat content of the world\u2019s oceans. Ocean heat content (OHC) has increased by around 370 zettajoules \u2013 a billion trillion joules \u2013 since 1955. The heat increase in 2018 alone compared to 2017 \u2013 about 9 zettajoules \u2013 is around 18 times more than the total energy used by everyone on Earth in 2018.\r\n\r\nHuman-emitted greenhouse gases trap extra heat in the atmosphere. While some of this warms the Earth\u2019s surface, the vast majority \u2013 around of 93% \u2013 goes into the oceans. About two thirds of this accumulates in the top 700 metres, but some also ends up in the deep oceans. Annual OHC estimates between 1955 and present for both the upper 700m and 700m-2000m depths of the ocean are shown in the figure below.\r\n\r\nIn many ways, OHC represents a much better measure of climate change than global average surface temperatures. It is where most of the extra heat ends up and is much less variable on a year-to-year basis than surface temperatures.\r\n\r\nChanges in the amount or rate of warming are much easier to detect in the OHC record than on the surface. For example, OHC shows little evidence of the slowdown in warming in the mid-2000s. It also shows a distinct acceleration after 1991, matching the increased rate of greenhouse gas emissions over the past few decades.\r\n\r\nJust about every year since 1991 has set a new OHC record, showing that heat has continued to accumulate in the Earth system as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases have increased.\r\n\r\n<strong>Fourth warmest year on the surface<\/strong>\r\n\r\nGlobal surface temperatures in 2018 were the fourth warmest on record since 1850, when global temperatures can first be calculated with reasonable accuracy. Temperatures in 2018 were between 0.9C and 1.1C warmer than temperatures in the late 19th century (between 1880 and 1900), depending on the temperature record chosen. Temperatures were dragged down a bit by a modest La Ni\u00f1a event earlier in the year, while the currently emerging modest El Ni\u00f1o event will mainly impact temperatures in 2019.\r\n\r\nGlobal surface temperatures are reported by a number of different international groups, including NASA, NOAA, Met Office Hadley Centre\/UEA, Berkeley Earth and Cowtan and Way. Copernicus\/ECMWF also produces a surface temperature estimate based on a combination of measurements and a weather model \u2013 an approach known as \u201creanalysis\u201d.\r\n\r\nThese records are created by combining ship- and buoy-based measurements of ocean sea surface temperatures with temperature readings of the surface air temperature from weather stations on land.\r\n\r\nUnfortunately, the on-going US government shutdown has delayed the reporting of December 2018 temperatures, so the full 2018 values in the figures below are preliminary estimates. They use January-November data, but estimate December based on the change between November and December in the Copernicus\/ECMWF dataset \u2013 which has not been delayed by the shutdown.\r\n\r\nThe global warming seen is not due to any adjustments made to the underlying temperature records. Short-term variability in temperature records is mostly due to the influence of El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a events, which have a short-term warming or cooling impact on the climate. Other dips are associated with large volcanic eruptions. The longer-term warming of the climate is due to increases in atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases emitted from human activity.\r\n\r\nTo assess the effects of El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a on the surface temperature record, Carbon Brief has produced an estimate of what temperatures would be in the absence of these events. Removing the effects of El Ni\u00f1o from the temperature record makes 2017 rather than 2016 the warmest year on record for most temperature series, as 2016 temperatures benefited from a large El Ni\u00f1o event.\r\n\r\nTemperatures for 2018 are bumped up modestly with the cooling effects of the early-2018 La Ni\u00f1a event removed, and 2018 would supplant 2015 as the third warmest year. Once El Ni\u00f1o effects are remove, the impact of major volcanic eruptions \u2013 such as those in 1982 and 1991 \u2013 are also much easier to identify in the temperature record.\r\n\r\n<strong>Surface temperatures in line with climate models<\/strong>\r\n\r\nClimate models provide physics-based estimates of future warming given different assumptions about future emissions, greenhouse gas concentrations and other climate-influencing factors.\r\n\r\nModel estimates of temperatures prior to 2005 are a \u201chindcast\u201d using known past climate influences, while temperatures projected after 2005 are a \u201cforecast\u201d based on an estimate of how things might change.\r\n\r\nWhile global temperatures were running a bit below warming projected by climate models between 2005 and 2014, the last few years have been pretty close to the model average. This is particularly true for globally complete temperature records like NASA, Cowtan and Way, Berkeley and the Copernicus reanalysis.\r\n\r\n<strong>Sixth warmest in the troposphere<\/strong>\r\n\r\nIn addition to surface measurements over the world\u2019s land and oceans, satellite microwave sounding units have been providing estimates of global lower atmospheric temperatures \u2013 the lower troposphere \u2013 since 1979.\r\n\r\nThe records produced by Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) and the University of Alabama, Huntsville (UAH) show 2018 as the sixth warmest year on record. These satellites measure the temperature of the lower troposphere and capture average temperature changes around 5km above the surface. This region tends to be influenced more strongly by El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a events than the surface and satellite records show correspondingly larger warming or cooling spikes during these events. This is why, for example, 1998 shows up as one of the warmest years in satellites, but not in surface records.\r\n\r\nThe two lower tropospheric temperature records \u2013 UAH and RSS \u2013 show large differences after the early 2000s. RSS shows an overall rate of warming quite similar to surface temperature records, while UAH shows considerably slower warming in recent years than has been observed on the surface. Both are subject to some large uncertainties and have seen large adjustments in recent years that have warmed RSS and cooled UAH compared to prior versions of each record.\r\n\r\n<strong>Greenhouse gas concentrations rising<\/strong>\r\n\r\nGreenhouse gas concentrations reached a new high in 2018, driven by human emissions from fossil fuels, land use and agriculture.\r\n\r\nThree greenhouse gases \u2013 CO2, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) \u2013 are responsible for the bulk of additional heat trapped by human activities. CO2 is by far the largest factor, accounting for roughly 50% of the increase in \u201cradiative forcing\u201d since the year 1750. Methane accounts for 29%, while nitrous oxide accounts for around 5%. The remaining 16% comes from other factors including carbon monoxide, black carbon and halocarbons, such as CFCs.\r\n\r\nHuman emissions of greenhouse gases have increased atmospheric concentrations of CO2, methane and nitrous oxide to their highest levels in at least a few million years \u2013 if not longer. The figure below shows concentrations of these greenhouse gases \u2013 in parts per million (ppm) for CO2 and parts per billion (ppb) for methane and nitrous oxide \u2013 from the early 1980s through September 2018 (the most recent data currently available).\r\n\r\n<strong>Sea ice remains low<\/strong>\r\n\r\nSea ice spent much of early 2018 at record lows in the Arctic and quite low in the Antarctic. It recovered somewhat at both poles by mid-year, but by the end of the year had returned to record lows in the Antarctic and is currently the third lowest on record in the Arctic. The Arctic spent most of the year well below the historical range over the 1979-2010 period and saw the sixth lowest summer minimum since records began in the late 1970s\r\n\r\nSea-ice extent only tells part of the story about changes at the poles; thickness (and volume) are also important variables, though they are more difficult to measure. The Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) project provides estimates of sea-ice volume since 1979, shown in the figure below.\r\n\r\nSea-ice volume shows a clear downward trend. While some individual months have lower or higher values than others, the range in 2018 to date is consistent with the long-term decline in Arctic sea-ice volume. Unfortunately, due to the government shutdown in the US, sea-ice volume estimates for December 2018 are not yet available.\r\n\r\n<strong>Looking ahead to 2019 surface temperatures<\/strong>\r\n\r\nWhile a modest La Ni\u00f1a event helped drag 2018 down to being the fourth warmest year on record, modest El Ni\u00f1o conditions have developed over the past few months and are expected to persist through late spring. This will help bump up 2019 temperatures, all things being equal.\r\n\r\nBoth the UK Met Office and NASA\u2019s Dr Gavin Schmidt have already predicted what temperatures might look like in 2019. Both suggest that 2019 will most likely be warmer than 2018, with a best guess of a second place finish and a range of anywhere between the warmest year and the fifth warmest year on record.\r\n\r\n<strong>\u00a0<\/strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Methods<\/strong>\r\n\r\nCarbon Brief has produced a raw global temperature record using unadjusted ICOADSsea surface temperature measurements gridded by the UK Hadley Centre and raw land temperature measurements assembled by NOAA in version 4 of the Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN).\r\n\r\nRaw land temperatures were calculated by assigning each station to a 5\u00d75 latitude\/longitude grid box, converting station temperatures into anomalies relative to a 1971-2000 baseline period, averaging all the anomalies within each grid box for each month, and averaging all grid boxes for each month weighted by the land area within each grid box. Raw combined land\/ocean temperatures were estimated by averaging raw land and ocean temperatures weighted by the percent of the globe covered by each. The resulting global temperature estimate was \u201crebaselined\u201d to 1981-2010 to be comparable to other estimates shown.\r\n\r\nFor the plot showing temperatures without El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a, the effect of ENSO was removed from each surface temperature record for each month using an approach adapted from Foster and Rahmstorf (2011). A regression model was used to estimate the impact of ENSO on each group\u2019s temperature series from January 1950 through December 2018, using a three month lagged Oceanic Ni\u00f1o Index. This estimated ENSO impact was then subtracted from the temperature series to calculate what the temperature records might look like in the absence of an ENSO signal.\r\n\r\n<strong>(Courtesy:<\/strong> Carbonbrief.org)","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The climate data for 2018 is now mostly in, though the ongoing shutdown of the US government has caused some datasets to be delayed. In this article, Carbon Brief explains why last year proved to be so remarkable across the&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","_themeisle_gutenberg_block_has_review":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"issuem_issue":[6],"class_list":["post-146","article","type-article","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","issuem_issue-december-2018","entry","no-media"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>State of the climate: How the world warmed in 2018 - Lok Samvad<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/populareducation.in\/loksamvad\/article\/state-of-the-climate-how-the-world-warmed-in-2018\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"State of the climate: How the world warmed in 2018 - Lok Samvad\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The climate data for 2018 is now mostly in, though the ongoing shutdown of the US government has caused some datasets to be delayed. 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